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External shocks—ranging from commodity-price spikes, wars, and pandemics to foreign monetary tightening and sudden stops of capital—pose immediate and diverse challenges for central banks. The appropriate response depends on the shock’s nature (demand, supply, financial, or external liquidity), its persistence, and the economy’s structural characteristics. This article outlines practical tools, strategic choices, case evidence, and trade-offs central banks face when shocks originate beyond national borders.Identifying external shocks and their policy repercussionsDemand shocks: Sharp contractions in global demand cut export earnings and weaken domestic production. Policy priorities typically pivot to sustaining economic momentum through rate reductions, ample liquidity, and targeted fiscal…

Sovereign debt restructuring is the negotiated or judicially mediated modification of the terms of a country’s external or domestic public debt when the original terms become unsustainable. Restructuring typically changes interest rates, maturities, principal amounts, or a combination of those elements, and can include conditional financing or policy commitments from international institutions. The purpose is to restore debt sustainability, preserve essential public services, and, where possible, re-establish market access.Key elements commonly included in a standard restructuringDiagnosis and decision to restructure. The debtor government and advisers assess whether the country can meet obligations without severe economic harm. This often relies on…

A pivotal encounter between China and the United States is drawing near amid mounting geopolitical uncertainty.China is pressing ahead with plans for a high-level meeting between its leader Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump, even as instability in the Middle East complicates the diplomatic landscape. The summit, now expected to take place in mid-May, is viewed within Beijing as an important chance to recalibrate relations with Washington, despite ongoing tensions and uncertainties.Sources familiar with internal discussions suggest that Chinese officials see the prolonged U.S. involvement in a conflict with Iran as a development that may have subtly shifted negotiating…

Inflation does not originate only from domestic demand or wage pressures. Open economies routinely absorb price pressures originating overseas. Imported inflation occurs when increases in the prices of goods and services from other countries, or shifts in exchange rates and global supply conditions, transmit into domestic prices. Understanding the channels, conditions, and policy implications helps businesses, policymakers, and households manage exposure and respond effectively.Main channels of imported inflationExchange rate pass-through: When the domestic currency depreciates, imported goods become costlier, and retailers, manufacturers, and service providers that rely on foreign inputs frequently shift these elevated expenses to consumers, pushing overall inflation…